HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray: Why The Next-Gen DVD Formats May Flop
Friday September 08, 2006 | Permalink
Simply put, most people don't really know what they want. We say we want to protect North American jobs, yet we still shop at Walmart which gets many, if not most, of its products from Chinese factories. We say we want low-fat foods but McDonalds' 2006 revenue's have steadily increased year over year.
Steve Jobs and Apple have made a science of giving people what they really want with the iPod. Surveys would have you believe that consumers want an FM receiver, long battery life, and voice recording capabilities built into their portable media players. The various versions of the iPod contain none of these features yet it commands a huge portion of the portable media player market. Why is that?
People are emotional beings. That much is obvious. We love getting a product for a low price and feeling like we got a deal despite it weakening the North American economy. We enjoy the taste of a burger and fries even though we know they're not very good for the arteries. Its whats on the surface and what's happening right now that matters to most people despite what they would otherwise say.
When you ask someone if they'd buy a high-definition DVD player because it can give them more capacity, a better image, and improved sound, they'd say "Sure, I'd love that". The catch is the average Joe doesn't care too much strictly about disc capacity.
What most people really care about is that the disc they buy has a movie on it. DVD's already do that. I think the average consumer also doesn't care much about the difference between the great image of a DVD and the really great image of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. A standard DVD movie displayed on a good quality HDTV or CRT simply looks terrific. Thats what they "see", and they don't care about the technical differences. If they did, Betamax would have won.
The next gen formats may very well be victims of their own hype. With one group saying Blu-Ray is the future, and another saying its HD-DVD, how could the average consumer know which one to buy? Most people simply can't afford to buy both players at current prices, and players that support both formats won't be plentiful or affordable.
So what's a potential buyer to do? The answer there is to wait. And waiting is bad for business when two groups of powerful tech companies are trying to beat each other over a new format.
Until buyers know for sure which direction the looming format war is going to go, they're going to hold off dropping a few hundred bucks on a player and new discs.
You've got different groups of enthusiasts and experts who say HD-DVD has already won because of superior video quality, cheaper players, and more titles being available. Others claim Blu-Ray will be successful because current manufacturing problems are going to be ironed out sooner rather than later. They also point to the soon-to-be released PS3 that has the potential of putting a Blu-Ray drive in the living room of every Sony fanatic on the planet.
Any way you slice it, its going to take a few years before we know who's going to walk away from this fight.
Steve Jobs and Apple have made a science of giving people what they really want with the iPod. Surveys would have you believe that consumers want an FM receiver, long battery life, and voice recording capabilities built into their portable media players. The various versions of the iPod contain none of these features yet it commands a huge portion of the portable media player market. Why is that?
People are emotional beings. That much is obvious. We love getting a product for a low price and feeling like we got a deal despite it weakening the North American economy. We enjoy the taste of a burger and fries even though we know they're not very good for the arteries. Its whats on the surface and what's happening right now that matters to most people despite what they would otherwise say.
When you ask someone if they'd buy a high-definition DVD player because it can give them more capacity, a better image, and improved sound, they'd say "Sure, I'd love that". The catch is the average Joe doesn't care too much strictly about disc capacity.
What most people really care about is that the disc they buy has a movie on it. DVD's already do that. I think the average consumer also doesn't care much about the difference between the great image of a DVD and the really great image of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. A standard DVD movie displayed on a good quality HDTV or CRT simply looks terrific. Thats what they "see", and they don't care about the technical differences. If they did, Betamax would have won.
The next gen formats may very well be victims of their own hype. With one group saying Blu-Ray is the future, and another saying its HD-DVD, how could the average consumer know which one to buy? Most people simply can't afford to buy both players at current prices, and players that support both formats won't be plentiful or affordable.
So what's a potential buyer to do? The answer there is to wait. And waiting is bad for business when two groups of powerful tech companies are trying to beat each other over a new format.
Until buyers know for sure which direction the looming format war is going to go, they're going to hold off dropping a few hundred bucks on a player and new discs.
You've got different groups of enthusiasts and experts who say HD-DVD has already won because of superior video quality, cheaper players, and more titles being available. Others claim Blu-Ray will be successful because current manufacturing problems are going to be ironed out sooner rather than later. They also point to the soon-to-be released PS3 that has the potential of putting a Blu-Ray drive in the living room of every Sony fanatic on the planet.
Any way you slice it, its going to take a few years before we know who's going to walk away from this fight.
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How Disabling The PVR Fast-Forward Feature Is Stupid And Won't Happen
Friday August 25, 2006 | Permalink
This is an oldie, but still a very relevant goodie.
A couple months ago, there was news of television network executives being in talks with PVR manufacturers. They were trying to convince the manufacturers to disable the fast-forward (FF) feature in their personal video recorders to force viewers to watch the commercials. As expected, this was met with some pretty harsh criticism from PVR owners.
On the one hand, I understand that television broadcasters have to make a buck. Without the ad-based business model, we wouldn't have much of the television content we enjoy today. On the other hand, its my time, and my PVR. If I don't want to watch a commercial I've seen 1,000 times already, then I'll zip through it. Thanks.
I'm willing to bet that being forced (because that's what it is really) to view a set of commercials isn't going to go unnoticed by the PVR-buying public.
Technology is changing and so are the habits, and expectations, of viewers. The VCR's time-shifting feature gave everybody the taste of being able to record a show, then watch it later. Fast-forwarding of commercials was very much possible then, and it hasn't killed the television advertising industry. I'm not against marketing, but broadcasters and marketers absolutely have to change and adapt to the new viewer reality.
You can't force the public to watch something they don't want, and you can't remove a feature they've had in every single VCR and PVR since the early 1980's. Here's a crazy idea. You have to get viewers to want to watch the commercials
KFC aired a series of ads earlier in the year where viewers had to watch the commercial in slow-motion to get a glimpse of a special promotional code. Viewers would present it at their local KFC and get $1 off their new Buffalo Snacker burger. This is a brilliant way of getting viewers to want to watch a commercial.
I personally like watching funny commercials. I just love the Geico "Caveman" ads. Especially the one where the Geico rep is apologizing to the cavemen in the restaurant and one of them orders the roast duck. That cracks me up every time.
Product placement inside television shows is another way around the fast-forward problem. I'm not a fan of this because is usually comes across as an obvious plug and, in my opinion, diminishes the effectiveness of the "ad". If its done in a very subtle way, then I think it'll be more successful.
I'm virtually certain the fast-forward feature won't be touched in any way. Why? People don't like change unless the benefit its miles above what they're used to. Any PVR owner will tell you they'd never go back to using a VCR again. With that kind of following, disabling the fast-forward feature will turn a legion of fans into a huge PR nightmare for the manufacturers and broadcasters.
A couple months ago, there was news of television network executives being in talks with PVR manufacturers. They were trying to convince the manufacturers to disable the fast-forward (FF) feature in their personal video recorders to force viewers to watch the commercials. As expected, this was met with some pretty harsh criticism from PVR owners.
On the one hand, I understand that television broadcasters have to make a buck. Without the ad-based business model, we wouldn't have much of the television content we enjoy today. On the other hand, its my time, and my PVR. If I don't want to watch a commercial I've seen 1,000 times already, then I'll zip through it. Thanks.
I'm willing to bet that being forced (because that's what it is really) to view a set of commercials isn't going to go unnoticed by the PVR-buying public.
Technology is changing and so are the habits, and expectations, of viewers. The VCR's time-shifting feature gave everybody the taste of being able to record a show, then watch it later. Fast-forwarding of commercials was very much possible then, and it hasn't killed the television advertising industry. I'm not against marketing, but broadcasters and marketers absolutely have to change and adapt to the new viewer reality.
You can't force the public to watch something they don't want, and you can't remove a feature they've had in every single VCR and PVR since the early 1980's. Here's a crazy idea. You have to get viewers to want to watch the commercials
KFC aired a series of ads earlier in the year where viewers had to watch the commercial in slow-motion to get a glimpse of a special promotional code. Viewers would present it at their local KFC and get $1 off their new Buffalo Snacker burger. This is a brilliant way of getting viewers to want to watch a commercial.
I personally like watching funny commercials. I just love the Geico "Caveman" ads. Especially the one where the Geico rep is apologizing to the cavemen in the restaurant and one of them orders the roast duck. That cracks me up every time.
Product placement inside television shows is another way around the fast-forward problem. I'm not a fan of this because is usually comes across as an obvious plug and, in my opinion, diminishes the effectiveness of the "ad". If its done in a very subtle way, then I think it'll be more successful.
I'm virtually certain the fast-forward feature won't be touched in any way. Why? People don't like change unless the benefit its miles above what they're used to. Any PVR owner will tell you they'd never go back to using a VCR again. With that kind of following, disabling the fast-forward feature will turn a legion of fans into a huge PR nightmare for the manufacturers and broadcasters.
Why Microsoft's Zune Is Going To Be Another Money Losing Venture.
Thursday July 27, 2006 | Permalink
Microsoft is said to be working on an iPod killer. As someone who's been working in the computer industry, primarily supporting Windows machines, for the past 20 years, I highly doubt Microsoft have any clue how to build a consumer device. The reason the XBox is doing well, contrary to its financials, is because Microsoft is packaging something people actually want. Surprising, I know. Despite what I think is a fluke (the XBox), Microsoft has never, and will never, understand the consumer the way Apple does. All Microsoft care about is controlling a technology and then licensing it to other players. This way they can keep control of that particular industry as they have for the past couple decades. Sit in front of a PC and you still have to deal with DLL-hell and other crap. The boys at Metroxing have a great article on it.